Objective Assessment of Groundwater Resources for the Isle of Wight, UK

Water resources are of crucial importance to the UK, and are essential to agriculture and industry as well as for domestic usage. A combination of factors - population growth, climate change and increasing regulatory restriction - will alter water availability over the next fifty years, potentially leading to shortages. Groundwater systems, representing 60% of available water in the southern UK, are typically conceptualised through geological interpretation, resulting in skilful and widely used systems models. Where these models are not successful, alternative approaches to groundwater resource assessments are required. A process for objectively modelling groundwater systems from borehole level observation data is presented, along with a methodology for incorporating climate change and population growth forecasts into an assessment of future water availability. The objective assessment described is a three stage process. Firstly, the observation data can be associated into groups, in order to best represent the water table response and thus identify units with consistent storage coefficient and transport process, analogous to varying aquifer media. Here this is achieved through the use of cluster analysis, applying various distance metrics to observation variances and incorporating spatial displacement. Secondly, the resulting groups are used to generate interpolated surfaces of mean water table level. A series of interpolative methods, including stochastic approaches, are applied and cross-validated to generate the most credible groundwater surface. Thirdly, the presence and influence of spatial and temporal anomalies such as groundwater abstraction points are identified through examination of observations furthest from the final interpolated groundwater surface. This groundwater systems model can then be incorporated into a groundwater/surface model relating rainfall to water table level and river flow, which in turn is used in conjunction with state-of-the-art climate projections and population change forecasts to generate projections of change for future scenarios. A case study illustrating the use of this methodology is presented. The Isle of Wight, a small island off the south coast of England with a population of 140,000, is exceptionally water stressed by UK standards and currently dependent on mainland transfers. These transfers are under review due to environmental pressure on the neighbouring county of Hampshire. Alongside this, a high population growth rate and the southerly location make the Isle of Wight the most likely part of the UK to be affected by reduced water availability. Lower Greensands and Chalk aquifer systems provide most of the island's non-imported water, yet these remain poorly understood. The principle reason for this is the exceptionally complex geology, a result of the island's location at the convergence of two asymmetric anticlinal structures and, in the case of the Lower Greensand group, multiple layers of alternating aquiferous and non-aquiferous material. A statistical assessment of borehole data may provide evidence for groundwater processes where direct lithological analysis is not appropriate. Through development of a credible groundwater systems model and sensible projections of future water availability, critical information can be provided to influence future water management policy.