Antarctic Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Ice Sheet Mass Balance using GRACE: A Report from the Ice-sheet Mass Balance Exercise (IMBIE)

In preparation for the Inter-govermental Panel on Climate Change: Assessment Report 5 (IPCC AR5), ESA and NASA have formed a committee of experts to perform a formal set of comparative experiments concerning space observations of ice sheet mass balance. This project began in August of 2011 and has now concluded with a report submitted for Science (Shepherd et al., 2012). The focus of the work conducted is to re-evaluate scientific reports on the mass balance of Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). The most serious discrepancies have been reported for the AIS, amounting to as much as 0.9 mm/yr in discrepant sea level contribution. A direct method of determining the AIS is by space gravimetry. However, for this method to contribute to our understanding of sea level change, we require knowledge of present-day non-elastic vertical movements of bedrock in Antarctica. Quantifying the uncertainty and bias caused by lack of observational control on models of regional glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), was a major focus for our experiments. This regional process is the most problematic error source for GRACE-determinations of ice mass balance in Antarctica. While GIA likely dominates some large vertical motions in Antarctica that are now observed with GPS (Thomas et al., 2011, GRL), interpretations still require models. The reported uncertainty for space gravimetric (GRACE) based sea level sourcing is roughly 0.20 to 0.35 mm/yr. The uncertainty is also part of the error budget for mass balances derived from altimetry measurements, though at a much lower level. Analysis of the GRACE time series using CSR RL04 (2003.0-2010.10) for AIS mass balance reveals a small trend of order +1 to -24 Gt/yr without a GIA correction. Three periods were selected over which to perform inter-comparisons (see Table). One class of GIA models, that relies primarily on far field sea level reconstructions (e.g. ICE-5G), provide a GIA correction that places AIS mass imbalance (δM) as high as -160 Gt/yr. IMBIE used an average of new models IJ05_R2 and W12a for new corrections. This new class of models is constrained by a variety of Antarctic data sets (e.g. proxy reconstructions of past ice extent, GPS estimates of vertical land motion) and provides a correction that is approximately one half to one third of that obtained from the far-field based models. As a consequence, this newer class of models gives Antarctic ice mass balance of approximately -81 ± 33 Gt/yr, or 0.225 ± 0.092 mm/yr contribution to sea-level rise. The new class of GIA models for Antarctica enhances the value of all GRACE Follow-On mission data.Mass Balance of AIS δM (Gt/yr);