Climate, Tree Growth, Forest Drought Stress, and Tree Mortality in Forests of Western North America: Long-Term Patterns and Recent Trends

Ongoing climate changes are increasingly affecting the world's forests, particularly including high latitude and high elevation coniferous forests. Although forest growth has improved in some regions due to greater growing season length and warmth (perhaps along with increased atmospheric CO2 or N), large growth declines or increased mortality from droughts or hotter temperatures also are being observed. We present and interpret information on regional variation in climate-tree growth relationships and trends, and on patterns and trends of climate-related forest disturbances, from western North America. From 235 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we show that tree-ring growth records from warmer southwestern sites are more sensitive to temperature than tree-ring growth records from cooler southwestern sites. Assessment of 59 tree-ring records from 11 species in the Cascade Mountains of the Pacific Northwest shows that trees growing in cool places respond positively to increased temperature and trees in warm places respond negatively, implying that trees historically not sensitive to temperature may become sensitive as mean temperatures warm. An analysis of 59 white spruce populations in Alaska supports the hypothesis that warming has caused tree growth to lose sensitivity to cold temperatures. Comparing ring widths to temperature during just the coldest 50% of years during the 20th century, tree growth was sensitive to cold temperatures, and this effect was strongest at the coldest sites; whereas during the warmest 50% of years, trees were not at all sensitive to cold temperatures, even at the cold sites. Drought and vapor pressure deficit are among the variables that emerge as being increasingly important to these Alaska boreal forests as mean temperatures rise. Most recently, from 346 tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest US we establish a tree-ring-based Forest Drought Stress Index (FDSI) for the three most widespread conifer species (Pinus edulis, Pinus ponderosa, and Pseudotsuga menziesii) in this region. FDSI responds sensitively and nonlinearly to growing season daily maximum temperatures which increase vapor pressure deficit, resulting in greater tree physiological stress and reduced tree growth. Drought conditions and warming temperatures in the Southwest since ca. 1996 have caused FDSI values in particular years since 2000 to start to exceed the most extreme values reconstructed from tree-rings for the past 1000 years for this region. FDSI demonstrates strong correlations with the spatial extent of major forest disturbances in the Southwest, including high-severity wildfire and bark beetle infestations, which over the past 20 years also have affected historically unprecedented levels. Similar trends of increasing extent and severity of forest disturbances are apparent across large portions of western North America. For the Southwest US, given relatively robust projections of substantial further increases in warmer temperatures and drought stress in coming decades, by ~2050 projected levels of FDSI and associated disturbances would reach extreme values, suggesting that current forest ecosystems likely would be forced to reorganize through wholesale tree mortality and the establishment of new dominant species.