Atmospheric Methane Growth Anomalies, 2007 - Present

Several marked growth anomalies in atmospheric methane have occurred since 2007. In particular there has been sustained growth in methane in the Southern Hemisphere. This southern growth anomaly is among the larger excursions in the global methane record so far occurring in the 21st century, yet in contrast to Arctic emission, it has had little attention. The increase in methane began in 2007 and continued through early-2012. In the zonal average from the Equator to 30°S, annual increases reached 7.9 ppb/yr in 2007, remained at 7.0 ppb/yr in 2008, fell to around 2.5 ppb/yr in 2009, then increased to 7.9 ppb/yr in 2010. To consider one specific site, recent data from Ascension Island (which samples South Atlantic air almost exclusively) suggests growth of ~11 ppb/yr from July 2010 to July 2011 (winter to winter) falling to 8 ppb/yr over Jan 2011 - Jan 2012 (summer to summer). Isotopic data for 2011 show ¹³C enrichments and depletions that may suggest inputs from tropical / subtropical fire and wetland sources, respectively. Despite the size of the southern anomaly, there has been virtually no discussion of its causes. Several possibilities exist: some or all may have occurred: 1) that methane emission from southern wetland (late wet season) and fire (dry season) sources increased sharply during this period; 2) that the southern OH methane sink has decreased; 3) that changes in atmospheric circulation patterns have increased inter-hemispheric transport. It is possible that a major factor was high La Nina rainfall in key areas draining into wetlands in southern tropical Africa and Latin America. Tropical methane sources emit roughly 200 Tg methane annually to the atmosphere, nearly two-fifths of the global budget. Thus changes in tropical sources, if sustained on this scale, can have global significance. However the observational network generally is so sparse in the tropics that identifying causes of methane growth events is more akin to guesswork than evidence-based science. The Northern Hemisphere growth anomalies are equally interesting. Here a parallel increase has occurred, beginning in the Arctic in 2007, and also marked in the northern mid-latitudes in 2009. The most pronounced increase was in the northern mid-latitudes (around 30°N) in 2009.