What is driving changes in long-range transport of dust from Africa to the Americas? A 30 year synthesis of the GEOS-Chem model and observations

The Sahara and Sahelian regions produce approximately half of the world's dust emissions, resulting in significant radiative effects, air quality issues and mineral deposition, not only in Africa, but across the Atlantic and in the Americas. Determining how these impacts may change in the future requires a thorough understanding of the processes controlling emission, transport and deposition of dust. Long-term records of dust concentration measured in the Caribbean have, until the nineties, correlated with Sahelian precipitation and climatic indicators, potentially providing ways to predict changes in dust. However, this relationship is no longer clear and there are significant changes in the seasonality of dust transported to the Americas currently with no obvious explanation. We use the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model with NASA GMAO meteorological re-analyses (MERRA) to simulate the 30 year period 1979 - 2008. A synthesis of observations from multiple satellite and surface-based platforms is used to evaluate the model, primarily in terms of its ability to simulate the long-range transport of mineral dust from Africa. We then investigate what drives the changes in long-range transport of African dust to the Americas over diurnal to decadal timescales. This enables understanding of the relative importance of the individual processes controlling these changes, and the sensitivity of air quality and dust deposition downwind. This work aims to determine 1) how sensitive air quality and dust deposition in the Americas is to changes in African dust emissions, 2) the role of meteorological variables affecting the inter-annual variability of dust emission and deposition, and 3) the impact that land use changes and desertification in the Sahel may have in terms of the influence on dust transported to the Americas.