Evaluation of Ovation Prime as a Forecast Model of Visible Aurorae

We evaluated the Ovation Prime Model for use as an operational forecast of the visible aurora for the public. For a model prediction that the aurora will be visible from some location, we wished to determine the likelihood that it will actually be seen within the hour from that location. Nighttime (MLT -5 to 6) model forecasts were validated with Polar UVI data for the years 1997-1998. For our studies, the model compared well with UVI data for KP ≥ 3, below which it is suspected that the UVI imager did not take good data. For KP ≥ 3, the forecasts for a visible aurora are correct ~80% of the time (false alarm rate of ~20%). For public auroral viewing, this is the most important statistic and shows that the positive forecasts are mostly correct. Although we didn't do validations for Kp<3, values, we note that the model is inherently much more accurate for low and medium Kp where more data was available for the model development.