Real time modeling of coronal mass ejections using WSA/ENLIL cone model

We analyze the results of more than 120 runs modeling coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation in the heliosphere using real time setup for the WSA/ENLIL cone model combination available at the NASA/GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center. The runs were executed in 2010-2011. We compare modeling results with in situ observations of the CMEs at the ACE, Stereo A and Stereo B satellites. We present the statistics of the comparison results in different formats, such as (1) false/true alarm ratio for the CME arrival at the satellite; 2) CME arrival time error; and (3) CME impact strength on the magnetosphere in terms of predicted Kp index.