Reusable Suborbital Launch Vehicles: Modeling and Assessment of Global Changes Associated With High Flight Rates

Reusable Suborbital Launch Vehicles (RSLVs) are expected to play a large role in the space transport sector in coming decades, opening a new chapter in middle and upper atmospheric flight. RSLV flight rates of up to 1000 per year are forecast as early as 2025. While combustion emissions from each RSLV launch are small, less than 10 metric tons or less, the cumulative stratospheric emissions loading from RSLV flights could significantly exceed the loading from present day orbital launches. Recent GCM results suggest that black carbon (BC) emissions from hydrocarbon fueled rocket engines - including engine types planned for some RSLVs - are of particular interest because BC emitted by rockets could affect global direct radiative forcing and composition in the middle atmosphere to a much greater extent than other rocket emissions such as carbon dioxide and water. We present arguments and model results indicating that 1000 RSLV launches per year could regionally increase stratospheric BC by at least tens of percent over the background and change surface temperatures by over one degree. We also show how the new middle atmospheric measurement capabilities offered by RSLVs permit heretofore unavailable measurements of background stratospheric and mesospheric particle populations and an assessment of the buildup of RSLV exhaust particles during the time that RSLV flight rates are expected to surge (2015-2025).