Medieval Warm Interval documented as drought in the northeastern US -implications for our future?

The Northeastern United States comprise 5% of the total area of the US yet contain nearly 18% of the US population, including the densely settled metropolitan areas of New York, Philadelphia, and Boston. As such, the demands on the region's water resources are severe. Historical records include only one major drought in the last half-century, which occurred in the 1960s - it was considered severe but only lasted a few years. However, recent reconstructions from tree rings, pollen, and charcoal, extend the record and reveal the occurrence of numerous droughts over the last millennium, the severity and duration of which have not been experienced by modern society. For example, a "Megadrought" has been documented during the Medieval Warming Interval (MWI) from analysis of core samples collected in Piermont Marsh, NY, which makes even the recent droughts of the western US seem minor by comparison. Charcoal data from other NY marshes (Iona Marsh, 41 N, 74 W; Tivoli Bay, 43 N, 55 W) suggest that this drought was a regional phenomenon. Similar evidence of a MWI drought in peatlands as far north as the Great Heath, Maine (44 N, 67 W) indicates the entire Northeast suffered water shortages. Examination of drought records from upland lakes nearby indicate the MWI was only one of a series of droughts throughout the Holocene that the region has experienced. Comparison with coastal tree ring records various other records suggests that conditions may have extended as far south as Roanoke, Virginia. A similar extreme drought today would devastate those living in the Northeastern US who have been lulled into complacency by the current pluvial. Severe, prolonged droughts are the most expensive natural disasters affecting our planet, with damage in the US alone reaching US$6-8 billion annually. By coupling information from paleoarchives, current climate forcing mechanisms, and climate models, we will explore the mechanisms of megadroughts during the Holocene and the implications for our region in the near future with climate warming.