Method meets application: on the use of earthquake scenarios in community-based disaster preparedness and response

More than 50% of the world's population now live in urban areas. In less developed countries, future urban population increase will be due to natural population growth and rural-to-urban migration. As urban growth continues, the vulnerability of those living in these areas is also increasing. This presents a wide variety of challenges for humanitarian organisations that often have more experience of disaster response in rural settings rather than planning for large urban disasters. The 2010 Haiti earthquake highlighted the vulnerability of these organisations and the communities that they seek to support. To meet this challenge, a key consideration is how scientific information can support the humanitarian sector and their working practices. Here we review the current state of earthquake scenario modelling practice, with special focus on scenarios to be used in disaster response and response planning, and present an evaluation of how the field looks set to evolve. We also review current good practice and lessons learned from previous earthquakes with respect to planning for and responding to earthquakes in urban settings in the humanitarian sector, identifying key sectoral priorities. We then investigate the interface between these two areas to investigate the use of earthquake scenarios in disaster response planning and identify potential challenges both with respect to development of scientific models and their application on the ground.