Tidally Adjusted Estimates of Susceptibility to Sea Level Rise for the Contiguous U.S

As projections for sea level rise this century increase to 1 m or more, it is becoming increasingly important to understand what communities and assets may be most at risk. Here we present the first analysis of low-lying coastal land, housing and population covering the contiguous U.S. while accounting for local and regional differences in the elevation of mean high tides, which range from ~0-3 m above mean sea level. Previous work at this scale has implicitly equated land elevation with height relative to local high tides, leading to underestimated risk in areas with high-elevation high tides, and compromising comparisons of risk across regions with different tidal levels. Our refinement substantially increases the national estimate of land and population within 1-6 m of high tide; we also rank cities and states by their topographic susceptibility to sea level rise.