Relationship between the interannual variability of satellite-observed fires and sea surface temperature anomalies

Fire is a worldwide phenomenon that occurs in multiple biomes and regions, and has large impacts on ecosystems, air quality, and global climate. High fire years are often associated with an extended dry season and anomalously low levels of precipitation. Sea surface temperatures (SST) may regulate the precipitation variability on land through teleconnections. Here we investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in satellite-derived estimates of fire activity and SST anomalies. Using South America as an example, we demonstrated an approach to predict regional annual fire season severity with 3-5 month lead times. We found that the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. We then extended this approach to examine the relationship between fire occurrences and SSTs for other important fire regions, using SST anomalies from different regions within the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. We determined regions where SST changes had significant impacts on the annual fire season severity, as well as the optimal lead times of fire prediction for each region. This study will be of use in several different ways to inform mitigation and adaptation strategies related to climate change.