Why Don't People Evacuate When Nature Threatens?
Abstract
Why do so many Southern Californians fail to evacuate when warned that winter storms have critically raised the risk of a debris flow in their neighborhoods? Have they perhaps not seen or heeded news coverage of past debris flow events? Are they unaware that recent fires made the hillsides above them more prone to gravity-driven processes? Do they think they can wait to start their cars until they can actually see the flow coming? Or have they merely experienced too many "false alarms" in past years, and no longer put much stock in the judgment of public officials or the ability of scientists to judge debris flow risk? In preparation for a simulation study that will place decision makers in a virtual house in the California foothills during a winter storm event, we explore the reasons that people do and do not evacuate in the face of potential debris flows. Working in collaboration with the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project for Southern California, we are surveying hundreds of local residents, from debris-flow prone areas and from elsewhere in the state, to establish their baseline knowledge (and misconceptions) about, attitudes toward, information use regarding, and experience with debris flows. Initial interviews with residents of recently hit neighborhoods give qualitative data suggesting that false-alarm effects and underestimation of risk are driving factors; these surveys will provide quantitative evidence to extend those findings. We will discuss the results of this survey in the context of a comprehensive body of psychology research that seeks to explain why people frequently appear to ignore or discount hazard warnings: neglecting to insure their homes and crops (Kunreuther, 1984), failing to evacuate in the face of storms and fires (Baker, 1991; Packham, 1995), and (barring a recent, vivid event) showing little support for measures that would manage or mitigate future hazards (Kunreuther, 2006a, 2006b; Weber, 2006). We will also consider the results of the survey in the context of findings from a similar simulation study on hurricane preparation and evacuation behavior in Florida, which suggests that prior outcomes affect the way that experience influences concern and evacuation behavior.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2011
- Bibcode:
- 2011AGUFMNH13B1380T
- Keywords:
-
- 6309 POLICY SCIENCES / Decision making under uncertainty;
- 4334 NATURAL HAZARDS / Disaster risk communication;
- 4354 NATURAL HAZARDS / Psychology of disasters