Analyses of non-stationary, non-linear coastal water level time series

Coastal sea level rise and fall are governed deterministically by the astronomical tides, and stochastically by a host of other factors. True rates of temporal variability and trends, over all local to regional to global spatial scales are not presently identically known. There are several factors that can affect the time history of sea level along the US coastline. These factors include but are not limited to: addition of fresh water due to melting of Alpine glaciers and polar ice sheets; auto-compaction of ancient sediments; compaction of deep sediments, particularly in deltaic environments; variations in regional to local isostatic rebound from the last period of glacial loading; local to regional slumps in coastal areas due to sediment discharge loading; slumping due to drainage of local ground-water, i.e. subsurface fluvial withdrawal; precipitation or the lack thereof and coupled watershed responses; steric rises of the water levels of adjacent ocean basin water masses due to increases in the heat content of these water masses; mesoscale to synoptic scale to longer period persistent winds; management practices such as dikes and impoundments that may enhance soil subsidence; and global warming due to anthropogenic influences. Climate systems likely play important roles in contributing to the variability. these rates of water level rise constant for very long periods of time, such as decades to centuries, or do they fluctuate about a trend? And if they do fluctuate about the trend, then what are the frequencies and amplitudes of the variations? And how about the trend, does it fluctuate? Finally, do these fluctuations relate to either the weather or climate of the oceans or the atmosphere? These questions will be addressed in this presentation.