Is Miscanthus a High Risk Biofuel Feedstock Prospect for the Upper Midwest US?
Abstract
Miscanthus is a highly productive C4 perennial rhizomatous grass that is native to Southeast Asia, but its potential as a feedstock for cellulosic biofuel in the Midwest US is intriguing given extremely high productivity for low amounts of agrochemical inputs. However, Miscanthus x giganteus, a key variety currently studied is not planted from seed, but rather from rhizomes planted at a soil depth of 5 to 10 cm. Therefore, it is costly to establish on the basis of both time and money, making it a potentially risky investment in geographic regions that experience cold wintertime temperatures that can effectively kill the crop. The 50% kill threshold for M. giganteus rhizomes occurs when soil temperatures fall below -3.5C, which may contribute to a high risk of improper establishment during the first few seasons. Our first objective here was to study a historical, simulated reconstruction of daily wintertime soil temperatures at high spatial resolution (5 min) across the Midwest US from 1948-2007, and use this information to quantify the frequency that lethal soil temperature thresholds for Miscanthus were reached. A second objective was to investigate how the use of crop residues could impact wintertime soil temperatures. In this study, a dynamic agroecosystem model (Agro-IBIS) that has been modified to simulate Miscanthus growth and phenology was used in conjunction with high-resolution datasets of soil texture and daily gridded weather data. Model simulations suggest that across the states of North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and the northern half of Iowa, the kill threshold of -3.5C at a 10cm soil depth was reached in 70-95% of the simulation years. A boundary representing a 50% likelihood of reaching -3.5C at 10cm depth in any given year runs approximately from east central Colorado, thought northern Kansas and Missouri, through central Illinois, central Indiana, and central Ohio. An analysis of monthly mean 10cm soil temperatures illustrates that temperatures colder than the kill threshold generally exist in January and February north and west of a line running from central Nebraska to north central Illinois, through southeastern Wisconsin and northern lower Michigan. These results suggest that a bioclimatic limit to successful establishment might be positioned somewhere through the central portion of the Corn Belt, but this depends on how risk is defined in the future. Model simulations suggest that a significant warming trend of wintertime soil temperatures existed across the region; soil temperatures have increased 3 to 4C in the past 60 years at 10cm as well as to depths as great as 50 to 100cm across northern and western portions of the Midwest. This warming trend, in combination with the strategic use of straw and other crop residues may reduce the risk of failure of establishing Miscanthus x giganteus. However, any adaptive management will not completely eliminate the high risk of cold soil temperatures in regions that are currently being targeted to support cellulosic biofuel production in the next several decades.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2011
- Bibcode:
- 2011AGUFMGC51G1112K
- Keywords:
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- 0402 BIOGEOSCIENCES / Agricultural systems;
- 1622 GLOBAL CHANGE / Earth system modeling;
- 1632 GLOBAL CHANGE / Land cover change;
- 1637 GLOBAL CHANGE / Regional climate change