Altered precipitation patterns with a shift from snow to rain in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

Precipitation patterns in mountain environments affect global water resources and major hazards such as floods and landslides. In mid-latitude mountain ranges such as the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, much of the precipitation falls as snow, which accumulates and acts as a natural reservoir. As in many snowfall-dependent regions, California water infrastructure has been designed to capture warm season snowmelt runoff and transport it to otherwise dry areas where it is needed. Recent studies suggest that anthropogenic climate change is likely to result in a substantial shift from snow to rain in the Sierra Nevada during the 21st century. One mechanism for changing spatial patterns in precipitation that has not received substantial attention arises directly from a phase change associated with winter temperatures rising above freezing with greater frequency. Because the fall speed of rain is greater than snow, it is not advected as far as snow by the prevailing winds. We hypothesize that an extreme change from snow to rain will result in a substantial westward shift in annual precipitation under a warming climate. To test this hypothesis, we conducted two climate simulations over the central Sierra Nevada using the WRF regional climate model version 3.1.1 for the period October 2001 to September 2002. Both simulations used nested domains with grid spacings of 27 km, 9 km, and 3 km. The first simulation is a control run, while the second run is an idealized simulation in which fall speeds for snow and graupel are set to be identical to those of raindrops. Comparison of the two runs suggests that a change from snow to rain would yield substantial changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation. However, these patterns are fully realized only in the 3 km domain. In the 9 km and especially the 27 km domain these patterns are substantially attenuated, likely due to less detailed orographic forcing. In the 3 km domain, precipitation increases substantially on windward slopes west of the principal drainage divide, in some areas by more than 1400 mm (115%). Conversely, the eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada becomes substantially drier, with decreases of as much as 886 mm (67%) in some areas. Overall, in a rain-only environment precipitation increases by an average of 135 mm (12%) on the west side of the divide and decreases by 174 mm (45%) on the east side compared to present-day conditions. While these results represent an idealized, extreme case in which all snow falls at the speed of rain from the same hydrometeor formation locations, they suggest that changes in spatial precipitation patterns associated with altered precipitation phase may have substantial effects on water resources, particularly the distribution of total precipitation across water basins, partition of water supply across collocated aqueducts, ecology, natural hazards such as floods and landslides, and other components of natural and human systems in the Sierra Nevada and the state of California more generally.