Future Climate Impacts on Bay Area Rangeland Forage Production

The San Francisco Bay Area is a highly heterogeneous region in climate, topography, and habitats, as well as in its political and economic interests. Downscaled projections of global climate models enable the fine-scale analysis necessary for conservation and climate adaptation planning across such a diverse area. Successful conservation strategies must consider various current and future competing demands for the land, and should pay special attention to the dominant non-urban land-use in the Bay Area: livestock grazing. Maintaining the viability of rangelands provides an economic incentive for the preservation of open space. Climate models suggest that forage production in Bay Area rangelands may be enhanced by future conditions in most years, at least in terms of peak standing crop. However, the timing of production is as important as its peak, and altered precipitation patterns could mean delayed germination, resulting in shorter growing seasons. An increase in the frequency of extremely dry years also increases the uncertainty of forage availability. These shifts in forage production will affect the economic viability of rangelands in the Bay Area.