Distributional prediction of Pleistocene forearc minibasin turbidites in the NE Nankai Trough area (off central Japan)

Natural gas hydrate-related sequences commonly provide unclear seismic images due to bottom simulating reflector, a seismic indicator of the theoretical base of gas hydrate stability zone, which usually causes problems for fully analyzing the detailed sedimentary structures and seismic facies. Here we propose an alternative technique to predict the distributional pattern of gas hydrate-related deep-sea turbidites with special reference to a Pleistocene forearc minibasin in the northeastern Nankai Trough area, off central Japan, from the integrated 3D structural and sedimentologic modeling. Structural unfolding and stratigraphic backstripping successively modeled a simple horseshoe-shaped paleobathymetry of the targeted turbidite sequence. Based on best-fit matching of net-to-gross ratio (or sand fraction) between the model and wells, subsequent turbidity current modeling on the restored paleobathymetric surface during a single flow event demonstrated excellent prediction results showing the morphologically controlled turbidity current evolution and selective turbidite sand distribution within the modeled minibasin. Also, multiple turbidity current modeling indicated the stacking sheet turbidites with regression and proximal/distal onlaps in the minibasin due to reflections off an opposing slope, whose sedimentary features are coincident with the seismic interpretation. Such modeling works can help us better understand the depositional pattern of gas hydrate-related, unconsolidated turbidites and also can improve gas hydrate reservoir characterization. This study was financially supported by MH21 Research Consortium.