Relation between subduction megathrust earthquakes, sediment thickness at trench, and plate coupling

Extreme seismic events (Mw 8.5 and higher) are uniformly characterized by trench-parallel rupture lengths longer than about 250 km, whereas downdip rupture width ranges from less than 70 km (e.g., Central Aleutians) to more than 200 km (e.g., Andaman-Sumatra). The ability of rupture to propagate in the trench-parallel direction thus appears to play a fundamental role in determining the potential magnitude that an earthquake can achieve for a given subduction zone. The rupture length may be influenced by the nature of the plate interface and the normal stresses applied to the plate interface (plate coupling). The nature of the plate interface is potentially modified by sediment subduction. Subduction of a thick section of trench sediment constructs a laterally homogenous layer between upper and lower plates that smoothes subducted sea-floor relief and strength-coupling asperities (Ruff, 1989). Such a homogeneous interface running parallel to the subduction zone tends to favor long trench-parallel propagation of rupture, and thus large earthquake magnitudes. Compressive normal stresses applied along the plate interface may also tune the earthquake magnitude potential (Ruff & Kanamori, 1980). This plate coupling across the subducting interface can be indirectly estimated by Upper Plate Strain analysis, by using the back-arc as a strain sensor from which we can infer the back-arc stress state. Compressive back-arcs indicate that large stresses are transmitted across the plate interface whereas extensional settings indicate weak plate coupling. Here we present the results of a study funded by the European Science Foundation - EURYI project titled "Convergent margin and seismogenesis". Maximal earthquake magnitude, sediment thickness at the trench and Upper Plate Strain are characterized for worldwide subduction zones in order to test how plate coupling and sediment thickness combine to explain the occurrence of mega-events at the subduction interface. Subduction zones are described through an initial set of 505 transects, systematically extracted each 1° of trench, and merged into 62 subduction segments of homogeneous seismogenetic conditions. Maximal earthquake magnitude has been estimated by combining instrumental and historical seismicity. Trench sediment thickness has been constrained for 48 subduction segments; based on a compilation of 165 different seismic-reflection lines (33% of the initial set of transects).