Intraseasonal Cold Air Outbreak over East Asia and the preceding atmospheric condition over the Barents-Kara Sea

Frequent occurrence of cold air outbreak is a dominant feature of the East Asian winter monsoon. A contributing factor for the this cold air outbreak is the role of stationary Rossby waves over the Eurasian continent which intensifies the surface Siberian High and the accompanying cold air outflow. Reduced sea ice and increase in turbulence heat flux is hypothesized as a source of such stationary waves (Honda et al. 2009). In particular, the winter of 2009/2010 saw a strong correlation of high pressure anomaly over the Barents/Kara sea and the following cold air buildup over the Eurasian continent and its advection towards East Asia (Hori et al. 2011). The lag correlation of surface temperature over Japan and the 850hPa geopotential height shows a cyclonic anomaly appearing over the Barents/Kara sea which creates a cold air advection over the Eurasian continent. The pressure anomaly subsequently shifted westward to mature into a blocking high which created a wave- train pattern downstream advecting the cold air buildup eastward toward East Asia and Japan (Fig1). We further examine this mechanism for other years including the 2005/2006, 2010/2011 winter and other winters with extreme cold air outbreaks. Overall, the existence of an anticyclonic anomaly over the Barents/Kara sea correlated well with the seasonal dominance of cold air over the Eurasian continent thereby creating a contrast of a warm Arctic and cold Eurasian continent.In the intraseasonal timescale, the existence of this anticyclone corresponds to a persisting atmospheric blocking in the high latitudes. In the presentation, we address the underlying chain of events leading up to a strong cold air outbreak over East Asia from an atmosphere - sea ice - land surafce interaction point of view for paritular cold winter years.