Geodynamic monitoring in real times
Abstract
For the decision of problems of the short-term and intermediate term forecast of tectonic earthquakes the technique conditionally named - geodynamic monitoring which does not use the data of seismic monitoring for the operative decision of problems of the forecast is offered. Geodynamic monitoring (GDM) is to studying tensely - deformed conditions of the separate block of rock on change of activity natural radioactive gas is carried out by accommodation in the chosen file of specially designed monitors of radon - devices fixing change in time (VAR). The monitor of radon, (the detector of radon) as the basic measuring device located in the block of rocks, possesses enormous tensosensitivity to relative strain condition of a file. Depending on the enclosed pressure choose three characteristic points: 1) 30-35 % of "background" size VAR - the beginning of accumulation of inelastic energy; 2) 50 % of background VAR - the process of stabilization of an elastic condition of a file; 3) 70-75 % "background" VAR - a critical pressure in the mountain block, an opportunity as spontaneous dump of elastic energy, and under action external "triggerring" forces. If the size of the saved up energy is close to critical dump needs energy at a level of energy of variations of rotation of the Earth. Such significant energy causes "plenty" of earthquakes on all planet simultaneously. This fact confirms an opportunity of the short-term forecast of strong (destructive) earthquakes: dump of elastic pressure of the Earth in this case occurs in 25-30 hours after passage of variations of rotation of the Earth. It is for the notification of the population about coming nearer earthquake. External power functions (mechanical, electromagnetic, etc.), preparations influencing system and occurrence of tectonic earthquakes, are divided on two big classes: 1) "forecasting " functions - processes functionally connected to accumulation of elastic pressure and to dump by its rather small dozes; 2) external mechanical actions which initiate dump of the saved up elastic pressure - "triggirring functions", promoting dump of the elastic pressure resulting in earthquake. The short-term forecast of especially large earthquakes is entirely based on use of monitoring of rotation of the Earth: essential "triggerring functions" (variations of rotation of the Earth) dump(reset) the saved up pressure on all surface of the Earth, causing thus large earthquakes. Therefore the prevention(warning) of large earthquakes should be formed on the basis of monitoring variations of heterogeneity of rotation of the Earth, that usually precedes dump of elastic pressure(voltage) at 25-30 o'clock.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2011
- Bibcode:
- 2011AGUFM.T43B2317O
- Keywords:
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- 0932 EXPLORATION GEOPHYSICS / Radioactivity methods