A Quick Response Forecasting Model of Pathogen Transport and Inactivation in Near-shore Regions
Abstract
Modeling methods supporting water quality assessments play a critical role by facilitating people to understand and promptly predict the potential threat of waterborne bacterial pathogens pose to human health. A mathematical model to describe and predict bacterial levels can provide foundation for water managers in making decisions on whether a water system is safe to open to the public. The inactivation (decay or die-off) rate of bacteria is critical in a bacterial model by controlling bacterial concentration in waters and depends on numerous factors of hydrodynamics, meteorology, geology, chemistry and biology. Transport and fate of waterborne pathogens in fresh water systems is an essentially three-dimensional problem, which requires a coupling of hydrodynamic equations and transport equations that describe the pathogen and suspended sediment dynamics. However, such an approach could be very demanding and time consuming from a practical point of view due to excess computational efforts. Long computation time may lead people unintentionally drinking or swimming in the contaminated water during the period before the predictive results of water quality come out. Therefore, it is very necessary to find a quick-response model to forecast bacterial concentration instantly to protect human health without any delay. Nearshore regions are the most commonly and directly used area for people in a huge water system. The prior multi-dimensional investigations of E. Coli and Enterococci inactivation in literature indicate that along-shore current predominated the nearshore region. Consequently, the complex dynamic conditions may be potentially simplified to one-dimensional scenario. In this research, a one-dimensional model system coupling both hydrodynamic and bacterial transport modules is constructed considering different complex processes to simulate the transport and fate of pathogens in nearshore regions. The quick-response model mainly focuses on promptly forecasting purpose and will be verified and calibrated with the available data collected from southern Lake Michigan. The modeling results will be compared with those from prior multi-dimensional models. This model is specifically effective for the outfall-controlled waters, where pathogens are primarily predominated by loadings from nearby tributaries and tend to show wide variations in concentrations.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2011
- Bibcode:
- 2011AGUFM.H51D1237L
- Keywords:
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- 1800 HYDROLOGY;
- 1816 HYDROLOGY / Estimation and forecasting;
- 1847 HYDROLOGY / Modeling