A threshold-based approach for linking climate impacts with action: A case study of species conservation

Although the need for action has been underscored by many climate change impact assessments, few efforts have been able to effectively bridge with adaptation efforts. One barrier to action has stemmed from the gap between coarse-resolution climate information and the localized nature of decision-making. This is especially true for conservation efforts aimed at protecting biodiversity and ecosystem services. To contend with this issue, a statistical framework is presented that connects climate to the decision-space through the use of a threshold-based approach. The technique can incorporate climate information from seasonal forecasts, as well as future projections from regional climate models. The approach is demonstrated for the Big Hole River in Montana, where specific streamflow targets have been identified as critical to a fish species of conservation concern, the fluvial Arctic grayling. Threshold exceedance is modeled directly and supports decision-making by conveying current and future risk to the fluvial Arctic grayling. Further, the research is being conducted with stakeholders who are actively exploring watershed management strategies to improve ecosystem resiliency. Hence, the framework offers a means of evaluating conservation plans under future climate scenarios.