Multi-Model Scenarios Support and Uncertainty Analysis in Hydrological Cycle Modeling

There is a wide variety of numerical models covering one or more processes of the hydrological cycle and integrated groundwater modeling is comprised of a number of sub-models that must be linked together in order to appropriately represent the physical scenario. Linking these models can be a complicated task given the multitude of the physical processes to model and numerical engines representing them. Traditional modeling software presents all available models and sub-models (packages) and require the user to decide which one is best for their objectives. The modeler may unknowingly introduce too much complexity by choosing a more advanced model than what is necessary for his project; or the modeler may over-simplify the conditions and neglect critical physical process occurring at the site. The lack of a systematic approach to this problem may also compromise the quality of the model. A new generation of Visual MODFLOW software - VMOD Flex provides an intuitive way to help the modelers match the available numerical models to the physical processes they must simulate. This mapping is integrated into the groundwater modeling workflow inside workflow-driven environment and provides a way to maintain, manage, and compare different numerical models realizing various physical scenarios. VMOD Flex provides an extendable set of such as Conceptual Modeling, Numerical Modeling, Parameter Estimation/Uncertainty Analysis, Optimization, Decision Support etc. Workflow based approach allows modelers to focus on their specific tasks by providing all necessary tools such as 2D/3D viewers, specialized editors, model version control just in time within single GUI environment. The approach also accommodates various linking types such as internal linking of boundary condition models (packages) in MODFLOW and external linking such as OpenMI.