Groundwater Forecasting Optimization Pertain to Dam Removal

There is increasing interest in removing dams due to changing ecological and societal values. Groundwater recharge rate is closely connected to reservoir presence or absence. With the removal of dams and their associated reservoirs, reductions in groundwater levels are likely to impact water supplies for domestic, industrial and agricultural use. Therefore accessible economic and time effective tools to forecast groundwater level declines with acceptable uncertainty following dam removals are critical for public welfare and healthy regional economies. These tools are also vital to project planning and provide beneficial information for restoration and remediation managements. The standard tool for groundwater forecasting is 3D Numerical modeling. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) may be an alternative tool for groundwater forecasting pertain to dam removal. This project compared these two tools throughout the Milltown Dam removal in Western Montana over a five year period. It was determined that ANN modeling had equal or greater accuracy for groundwater forecasting with far less effort and cost involved.