Probabilistic Description of the Hydrologic Risk in Agriculture

Supplemental irrigation represents one of the main strategies to mitigate the effects of climatic variability on agroecosystems productivity and profitability, at the expenses of increasing water requirements for irrigation purposes. Optimizing water allocation for crop yield preservation and sustainable development needs to account for hydro-climatic variability, which is by far the main source of uncertainty affecting crop yields and irrigation water requirements. In this contribution, a widely applicable probabilistic framework is proposed to quantitatively define the hydrologic risk of yield reduction for both rainfed and irrigated agriculture. The occurrence of rainfall events and irrigation applications are linked probabilistically to crop development during the growing season. Based on these linkages, long-term and real-time yield reduction risk indices are defined as a function of climate, soil and crop parameters, as well as irrigation strategy. The former risk index is suitable for long-term irrigation strategy assessment and investment planning, while the latter risk index provides a rigorous probabilistic quantification of the emergence of drought conditions during a single growing season. This probabilistic framework allows also assessing the impact of limited water availability on crop yield, thus guiding the optimal allocation of water resources for human and environmental needs. Our approach employs relatively few parameters and is thus easily and broadly applicable to different crops and sites, under current and future climate scenarios, thus facilitating the assessment of the impact of increasingly frequent water shortages on agricultural productivity, profitability, and sustainability.