EarthScope imaging of 4D stress evolution of the San Andreas Fault System

EarthScope seismic and geodetic observations, combined with sophisticated computational models and powerful visualization tools, are now providing a critical ensemble of information about interseismic stressing rates along the San Andreas Fault System (SAFS). When combined with paleoseismic chronologies of earthquake ruptures spanning the last several hundreds of years, four-dimensional (4D) simulations of stress evolution spanning multiple earthquake cycles are now possible. To investigate stress variations at depth along the SAFS over multiple earthquake cycles, we use a 4D semi-analytic model that simulates interseismic strain accumulation, coseismic displacement, and post-seismic viscoelastic relaxation of the mantle. The model utilizes geologic estimates of fault locations and slip rates, as well as paleoseismic earthquake rupture histories, and is computed at a 500 m grid resolution to better resolve the sharp deformation gradients at creeping faults. Using EarthScope PBO and ALOS InSAR data, we tune the model locking depths and slip rates to compute the 4D stress accumulation within the seismogenic crust. 4D models show that stress accumulation and stress drop are a complex function of space and time. We use ParaView 3.10, an open-source multi-platform visualization package, for manipulation and visualization of 4D stress variations of fault segments at depth. We use ParaView to create a 3D meshed volume spanning a ~1000 x 1500 x 50 km region of the SAFS and present both volume and sliced views of stress from several viewpoints along the plate boundary. These models reveal pockets of stress concentrated at depth due to the interaction of neighboring fault segments and at fault segment branching junctions. We present several sensitivity tests that reveal the variation of stress at depth as a function of locking depth, slip rate, coefficient of friction, elastic plate thickness, and viscosity. These visualizations lay the groundwork for 4D time-series animations, an important step forward in simulating stress evolution over multiple earthquake cycles spanning paleoseismic timescales. .