Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet using a regional atmospheric climate model

It has been proposed that the surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is likely to change significantly in next centuries, thereby impacting global sea level. Because of insufficient resolution, General Circulation Models (GCM) are not yet able to accurately simulate regional changes in the Antarctic climate and surface mass balance. Therefore, a regional atmospheric climate model with sophisticated snow module (RACMO2/ANT) is forced at the lateral boundaries with GCM data to represent the Antarctic climate in more detail. As part of Ice2Sea, a EU FW7 project to determine the contribution of land ice to future sea level rise, we use two different GCMs (ECHAM5 and HadCM3) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) to simulate changes in Antarctic climate and surface mass balance over the period 2000-2200. Temperature increases by 2-5 °C, thereby enhancing snowmelt and sublimation in the next two centuries. However, a more significant increase in precipitation leads to a positive trend in surface mass balance and therefore a negative contribution to future sea level rise.