Remote Assessment of Forest Ecosystem Stress (RAFES): Development of a Real Time Decision Support Tool for the Eastern U.S

Drier and warmer conditions predicted with climate change models are likely to significantly impact forest ecosystems over the next several decades. The U.S. has experienced significant droughts over the past several years that have increased the susceptibility of forests to insect outbreaks, disease, and wildfire. Weather data collected with traditional approaches provide an indirect measure of drought or temperature stress; however, the significance of short-term or prolonged climate-related stress varies considerably across the landscape as topography, elevations, edaphic condition and antecedent conditions vary. This limits the capacity of land managers to anticipate and initiate management activities that could offset the impacts of climate-related forest stress. Decision support tools are needed that allow fine scale monitoring of stress conditions in forest ecosystems in real time to help land managers evaluate response strategies. To assist land managers in managing the impacts of climate change, we are developing a stress monitoring and decision support system across multiple sites in the eastern U.S. that (1) provides remote data capture of environmental parameters that quantify climate-related forest stress, (2) links remotely captured data with physiologically-based indices of tree water stress, and (3) provides a PC-based analytical tool for land managers to monitor and assess the severity of climate-related stress. Currently the network represents southern coastal plain pine plantation, Atlantic coastal flatwoods mixed pine-hardwood, southern piedmont upland mixed pine-hardwood, southern Appalachian dry ridge and mesic riparian, southern Arkansas managed mature pine, and northern Minnesota mature aspen. The strategy for selecting additional sites for the network will be a focus on at-risk ecosystems deemed particularly vulnerable to the affects of predicted climate change such as those in ecotonal transition regions, or those at the fringes of their ranges. The sensor arrays at each site detect water and temperature stress variables and transmit those data to a field office. Sensors include air and soil temperature, relative humidity, fuel moisture and temperature, xylem sap flux density, soil moisture and matric potential, precipitation, and solar radiation. Data are transmitted in real-time to the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES). A PC-based software program that downloads monitoring data from the GOES satellite, analyzes the data, and provides the land manager with an assessment of climate-related stress conditions and potential forest health threat levels in real time is under development. Data collection began in early 2010 on most sites, and we have at least one year of data from all nine sites within the network. We are currently comparing estimates of stress levels on our sites with estimates of stress from common drought indices. For this presentation, we are comparing and contrasting four sites representing an environmental gradient within the network.