The air quality and regional climate effects of widespread solar power generation under a changing regulatory environment

Over the past decade significant reductions of NOx and SOx emissions from coal burning power plants in the U.S. have been achieved due to regulatory action and substitution of new generation towards natural gas and wind power. Low natural gas prices, ever decreasing solar generation costs, and proposed regulatory changes, such as to the Cross State Air Pollution Rule, promise further long-run coal power plant emission reductions. Reduced power plant emissions have the potential to affect ozone and particulate air quality and influence regional climate through aerosol cloud interactions and visibility effects. Here we investigate, on a national scale, the effects on future (~2030) air quality and regional climate of power plant emission regulations in contrast to and combination with policies designed to aggressively promote solar electricity generation. A sophisticated, economic and engineering based, hourly power generation dispatch model is developed to explore the integration of significant solar generation resources (>10% on an energy basis) at various regions across the county, providing detailed estimates of substitution of solar generation for fossil fuel generation resources. Future air pollutant emissions from all sectors of the economy are scaled based on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory to account for activity changes based on population and economic projections derived from county level U.S. Census data and the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook. Further adjustments are made for technological and regulatory changes applicable within various sectors, for example, emission intensity adjustments to on-road diesel trucking due to exhaust treatment and improved engine design. The future year 2030 is selected for the emissions scenarios to allow for the development of significant solar generation resources. A regional climate and air quality model (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF model) is used to investigate the effects of the various solar generation scenarios given emissions projections that account for changing regulatory environment, economic and population growth, and technological change. The results will help to quantify the potential air quality benefits of promotion of solar electricity generation in regions containing high penetration of coal-fired power generation. Note current national solar incentives that are based only on solar generation capacity. Further investigation of changes to regional climate due to emission reductions of aerosols and relevant precursors will provide insight into the environmental effects that may occur if solar power generation becomes widespread.