CO2 Flux Inversion Error Analyses for Future Active Space CO2 Missions like ASCENDS

We assess the ability of different proposed CO₂ lidar measurement approaches to constrain surface CO₂ fluxes, as part of the development of science requirements for NASA's ASCENDS mission. Observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) are performed for different overall measurement uncertainty levels and vertical weightings to determine what designs will yield useful new information on the global carbon cycle. The OSSEs are based on a variational data assimilation method that models the measurements at the time and location they occur with minimal averaging and solves for the surface fluxes at regional spatial scales. Measurements are simulated using the PCTM off-line atmospheric transport model driven by GEOS5 analysis data (winds and vertical mixing parameters) and forced by realistic modeled CO₂ fluxes. Both day- and night-side fluxes are estimated in weekly blocks at 4.5°x6° resolution (lat/lon) using a full year of simulated data. Error estimates are computed by direct comparison to the known truth; only random errors in the measurements and assumed flux prior are considered here. Relative measurement uncertainties and vertical averaging kernels have been derived for lidar measurements made using CO2 absorption lines in the 1.57 and 2.06 micron bands using realistic assumptions about clouds, aerosols, and surface reflectivity taken from CALIPSO and MODIS. Two measurement cases are considered for the 1.57 μm band, one using a vertical weighting function weighted to the mid- to lower troposphere, and one combining this with a function peaking near the tropopause. A third case is considered for measurements in the 2.06 μm band, with a vertical weighting peaking strongly near the surface. For each of these cases, three overall measurement uncertainty levels are examined (tied to reference uncertainties of 1.0, 0.5, and 0.2 ppm (1σ) at Railroad Valley, Nevada). OSSEs with simple measurement biases are run to test how the random-error-only findings hold in more realistic conditions. Finally, we do a case with data only taken at solar zenith angles less than 75° to assess the advantage of night-side and polar coverage. Our results show that reducing the measurement uncertainty improves flux estimates broadly across all parts of the globe (including the oceans). At a given uncertainty level, measurements made with more weight near the surface (e.g. at 2.06 um) can resolve the details of the continental fluxes better than those with a flatter weighting.