The recent findings of the "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010" and the World Avoided by the Montreal Protocol

The ozone layer is the Earth's natural sunscreen, blocking harmful solar ultraviolet radiation. In 1974, Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland proposed that the ozone layer could be depleted by chlorine released from human-produced chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Follow-up science investigations supported this hypothesis, leading to the landmark 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer (a protocol to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer). One of the Montreal Protocol provisions is that science assessments on ozone depletion be written and submitted to the signatory Parties every 4 years. In this talk, I will primarily focus on the science findings from the recently published "Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2010". This assessment is written and reviewed (multiple times) by the international science community. The 2010 assessment is the latest in a long series of reports that provide the science foundation for the Montreal Protocol. This assessment demonstrates that the Montreal Protocol is working, and that there are early signs that ozone is beginning to respond to decreasing CFC levels. There are now state-of-the-art simulations that show that the ozone layer would have been largely destroyed if CFCs had not been regulated, and therefore extreme levels of UV radiation have been avoided. The 2010 assessment also spotlights new insights into the impact of ozone depletion on surface climate, and climate impacts on ozone. However, the assessment also reveals that greenhouse gases are modifying the stratosphere and that the ozone layer will evolve into a different state than its pre-industrial values - you can't go home again.