Optimally coherent sets in geophysical flows: A transfer-operator approach to delimiting the stratospheric polar vortex

The “edge” of the Antarctic polar vortex is known to behave as a barrier to the meridional (poleward) transport of ozone during the austral winter. This chemical isolation of the polar vortex from the middle and low latitudes produces an ozone minimum in the vortex region, intensifying the ozone hole relative to that which would be produced by photochemical processes alone. Observational determination of the vortex edge remains an active field of research. In this paper, we obtain objective estimates of the structure of the polar vortex by introducing a technique based on transfer operators that aims to find regions with minimal external transport. Applying this technique to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 three-dimensional velocity data, we produce an improved three-dimensional estimate of the vortex location in the upper stratosphere where the vortex is most pronounced. This computational approach has wide potential application in detecting and analyzing mixing structures in a variety of atmospheric, oceanographic, and general fluid dynamical settings.