Significant Climate Changes Caused by Soot Emitted From Rockets in the Stratosphere

A new type of hydrocarbon rocket engine with a larger soot emission index than current kerosene rockets is expected to power a fleet of suborbital rockets for commercial and scientific purposes in coming decades. At projected launch rates, emissions from these rockets will create a persistent soot layer in the northern middle stratosphere that would disproportionally affect the Earth’s atmosphere and cryosphere. A global climate model predicts that thermal forcing in the rocket soot layer will cause significant changes in the global atmospheric circulation and distributions of ozone and temperature. Tropical ozone columns decline as much as 1%, while polar ozone columns increase by up to 6%. Polar surface temperatures rise one Kelvin regionally and polar summer sea ice fractions shrink between 5 - 15%. After 20 years of suborbital rocket fleet operation, globally averaged radiative forcing (RF) from rocket soot exceeds the RF from rocket CO_{2} by six orders of magnitude, but remains small, comparable to the global RF from aviation. The response of the climate system is surprising given the small forcing, and should be investigated further with different climate models.