Precise prediction of glacial cycle with its rhythm

An ability to explain and predict the paleoclimatic cycles is one of necessary conditions for reliable predictions of future climate without and with anthropogenic forcing. Here, we solved a big puzzle. Quaternary glacial cycles, as represented by climate proxy data of benthic δ18O, can be divided into four typical periods (TP) with four characteristic points (CP). The cyclic sequence of them goes in the following order: (1) Onset point of glacial termination, (2) Glacial termination period, (3) Zip point of glacial termination, (4) Inter-glacial period, (5) Inception point of glaciations, (6) Period for glacial maturation, (7) Glacial maximum point, and (8) Period for glacial hibernation. The glacial termination (GT) is a swift transition period of about 6,500 years only. A precise prediction of its onset point is a great challenge to the theorem of orbital-forcing that is being developed since Milankovitch. We consider the climate system as a stack of heat capacitors that get warmed up by absorbing part of the insolation and cooled down via gray-body radiation. Part of the insolation is transformed into chemical energy through photosynthesis (CETP) and eventually gets accumulated in the clathrate hydrate (CH) in seawater. We found that, during the last 1.7 million years, every Onset point of GT falls in a very precise time-window defined with three conditions: (1) the eccentricity (E) of Earth’s orbit is increasing, (2) the obliquity (T) is also increasing, and (3) the phase angle of precession (P) falls between 7π/8 and 5π/4. The CETP is converted into sensible heat via oxidation of gases released from dissociated CH. The dissociation of CH depends on its floating level and dissociating level. Those levels are controlled by seawater temperature and the density of CH. The Zip point of GT comes when the average temperature of seawater at 150 m depth is about 18 C, which is mostly influenced by the H2S in the CH. We define the Inception point of glaciations as the time when δ18O rises above 4.25 ‰. We found that every Inception point falls in the precise time-window defined with three conditions: (1) the E is decreasing, (2) the T is also decreasing, and (3) the P is between +/- π/4.