Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project: Active Fault Database for the Middle East Region

The Earthquake Model of the Middle East (EMME) Project is a regional project of the umbrella GEM (Global Earthquake Model) project (http://www.emme-gem.org/). EMME project region includes Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Both EMME and SHARE projects overlap and Turkey becomes a bridge connecting the two projects. The Middle East region is tectonically and seismically very active part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt. Many major earthquakes have occurred in this region over the years causing casualties in the millions. The EMME project will use PSHA approach and the existing source models will be revised or modified by the incorporation of newly acquired data. More importantly the most distinguishing aspect of the EMME project from the previous ones will be its dynamic character. This very important characteristic is accomplished by the design of a flexible and scalable database that will permit continuous update, refinement, and analysis. A digital active fault map of the Middle East region is under construction in ArcGIS format. We are developing a database of fault parameters for active faults that are capable of generating earthquakes above a threshold magnitude of Mw≥5.5. Similar to the WGCEP-2007 and UCERF-2 projects, the EMME project database includes information on the geometry and rates of movement of faults in a “Fault Section Database”. The “Fault Section” concept has a physical significance, in that if one or more fault parameters change, a new fault section is defined along a fault zone. So far over 3,000 Fault Sections have been defined and parameterized for the Middle East region. A separate “Paleo-Sites Database” includes information on the timing and amounts of fault displacement for major fault zones. A digital reference library that includes the pdf files of the relevant papers, reports is also being prepared. Another task of the WP-2 of the EMME project is to prepare a strain and slip rate map of the Middle East region by basically compiling already published data. The third task is to calculate b-values, Mmax and determine the activity rates. New data and evidences will be interpreted to revise or modify the existing source models. A logic tree approach will be utilized for the areas where there is no consensus to encompass different interpretations. Finally seismic source zones in the Middle East region will be delineated using all available data. EMME Project WP2 Team: Levent Gülen, Murat Utkucu, M. Dinçer Köksal, Hilal Domaç, Yigit Ince, Mine Demircioglu, Shota Adamia, Nino Sandradze, Aleksandre Gvencadze, Arkadi Karakhanyan, Mher Avanesyan, Tahir Mammadli, Gurban Yetirmishli, Arif Axundov, Khaled Hessami, M. Asif Khan, M. Sayab.