Contemporary Variability and Projected Changes in the North Eurasian Water Cycle

The Water Systems Analysis Group at the University of New Hampshire, USA in close collaboration with international partners has recently developed a new regional monitoring and analysis system for northern Eurasia to facilitate integration between water related projects involved in North Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative (NEESPI). The system, along with new data from the State Hydrological Institute, Russia, were used to analyze historical and contemporary changes in major water cycle components across northern Eurasia. Significant changes in various components of the hydrological regime were found over the last few decades in different regions. Specifically, the hydroclimatic conditions of the dry and warm summer of 2010 in European Russia were analyzed along with historical characteristics to demonstrate unique and anomalous nature of this summer. To evaluate potential future patterns of change in the northern Eurasian water cycle we used projections of climate change simulated by eight coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Future simulations of hydrological regime from the UNH Water Balance and Water Transport Models (WBM/WTM), incorporating irrigation and reservoir effects, were analyzed to assess potential effects of climate and water management on various hydrological characteristics. All data can be found at the Northern Eurasian Earth Science Partnership Initiative Water Center website (http://NEESPI.sr.unh.edu).