The possibility of persisting cold spells in a warming environment

While climate scientists have closely examined heat waves and high temperature extremes with changing climate, the intensity, duration, and frequency of cold spells have been less well-studied. Recent investigations of both model-simulations and observations suggested that longer periods of relatively colder years or even decades may occur even within an overall warming trend. Here we examine the behavior of the statistics of cold events, specifically attributes such as intensity, duration and frequency in time and space, under climate change. Multiple climate models from the IPCC AR4 suite are used along with a reanalysis dataset to characterize the credibility of the climate models as well as to develop projections of cold spells at the end of the 21st century. Our results suggest the possibility of persisting intensity and duration of cold spells under climate change, which may have implications for regional preparedness decisions.