Application of vegetation information on the Tibetan Plateau to improve East Asian summer monsoon prediction

The summer monsoon is the most important climate feature in East Asia. Its unusual behaviors may lead to occurrence of extensive drought/flood disasters in East Asia, which can cause serious consequences on the natural environment and the human society. It is well known that the slowly varying oceanic processes provide the primary source for East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) predictability. In addition to the ocean, land surface can also provide a critical memory function in the climate system at the monthly and longer time scales. However, the memory inherent in the land surface is less well understood or applied toward EASM prediction. Here we investigate the role of vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau for the EASM variation and prediction using observational data. We discuss the possible mechanism explaining the relationship between TP vegetation and EASM. A statistical model is further developed to predict the EASM strength by combination of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the TP vegetation greenness. Hindcast for the period 1982-2006 shows that the use of the TP vegetation information can largely improve the EASM prediction skill compared to that using ENSO alone.