A Proposed Framework for Synthesis Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Synthesis Analysis for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions data refers to the “meta-integration” of many sources of GHG emissions data (beyond the standardization of related data required for a data assimilation system). This includes integration of various data types such as, but not limited to: data from multiple data assimilation systems; data from standardized economic-based emissions inventories such as the UNFCCC National Emissions Inventories (NEI) from various Annex I countries; data from non-NEI emissions inventories for sectors specified by UNFCCC as excluded; and ancillary data available from other sources. The term data integration refers to meaningful comparisons between different data sets and associated uncertainties but does not necessarily imply reduction to a single value or set of values. This analysis intends to develop a preliminary framework for development and assessment of the quality and impact of policies and decisions based on Bayesian statistical methods. It will also identify some likely data sources that will need to be synthesized for greenhouse gas emission discussions and policy products. Uncertainties and uncertainty methodologies are explored, along with suggestions for improving reporting of emissions quantities and associated uncertainties to better facilitate future data comparison.