Regional patterns of SST warming trend in the North Pacific based on CMIP3 multi-model simulations

Spatial characteristics of sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend in the North Pacific during winter (DJF) are investigated based on the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) multi-model simulations. While the magnitude of global or hemispheric mean SST trends mostly depends on the emission scenario, spatial patterns of the SST trend vary among the models. Inter-model spread of the SST warming trend is large in the North Pacific compared to the tropical Pacific. In models with large (small) SST warming in the central North Pacific, the SST trend pattern in the North Pacific resembles the positive (negative) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) with a weakening (deepening) Aleutian low. The changes in the surface heat flux and wind stress forcing in association with the Aleutian low are important for regional differences in the SST warming trend in the North Pacific.