Can the Solid State Greenhouse Effect Produce ~100 Year Cycles in the Mars South Polar Residual CO2 Ice Cap?

Malin et al. (2001) reported that the south perennial cap consists of quasi-circular pits ~8 meters deep, with a flat surface in between. The walls of the pits are retreating at a rate of 1 to 3 meters per year. Byrne and Ingersoll (2003a, 2003b) showed evidence that the floors of the pits are water ice and the upper layer is CO2. This layer will be gone in a few Martian centuries, if the observations are taken at face value. This raises some difficult questions: How likely is it that mankind would be witnessing the final few hundred years of the residual CO2 frost on Mars? Can one imagine extreme weather events that could recharge the residual CO2 frost once it is gone? Both seem unlikely, and we propose a different mechanism. Kieffer et al. (2000) showed that sunlight can penetrate several meters through the seasonal CO2 frost, where it warms the surface below. We have observational evidence that the same is happening in the perennial CO2 frost. Further, we have a model that shows how this "solid-state greenhouse" can lead to cyclic behavior, in which layers of CO2 build up on a water ice substrate, are heated internally by sunlight and lose mass from within. Eventually the layer becomes too weak to support itself, and it collapses to form pits. Then a new CO2 layer accumulates and the process repeats. Our study addresses fundamental questions of long-term stability of the Martian polar caps and how the caps control the atmospheric pressure. Instead of invoking extreme climate events to explain the data, we propose that processes within the frost itself can lead to cyclic growth and collapse of the pits. Our model implies that there is no long-term change in the ~8 meter layer of CO2 and no extreme weather events to make it change.