Future Water Resource Scenarios for USA: Effects of Land Use/Cover Change, Climate Change and Human Disturbance

Spatially distributed and easily interpretable maps of global climate change impacts are valuable information layer for policy makers. The broader objective of this study is to construct future water resource scenarios for USA by combining impacts of land use/cover change, climate change, and human disturbances across a variety of spatial scales. Specifically, Water Resource Availability Change Index (WRACI) and Water Resource Vulnerability Change Index (WRVCI) will be prepared for USA using a multi-scaling based approach. In this approach, Earth System Model outputs are scaled to observations using quantile based mapping. Spatially distributed (0.5 degree x 0.5 degree) maps of land cover change history and population dynamics over past 200 years are synthesized using literature and US census data. Future land use/cover change at a grid cell is a function of (1) land use/cover change potential [topography, soil, and climate] (2) historical land use/cover change rate, and (3) socio-economic condition [e.g. GDP, nearness to major city] and (4) projected population. Spatially distributed data of future population scenarios is obtained from the literature. Initial work towards the development of a land use/cover change model and index mapping (WRACI and WRVCI) will be presented.