Future groundwater levels scenarios at the Guadalupe Valley Aquifer, BC, Mexico

In this study was analyzed through a regional groundwater flow model the effects on groundwater levels caused by the application of different future groundwater management scenarios (2007-2025) at the Guadalupe Valley, in Baja California, Mexico. Among these studied alternatives are those scenarios designed in order to evaluate the possible effects generated for continue with the mean operations of the current groundwater management, to satisfy a future water demand taking in account a reduction of the recharge volume, and to satisfy a water demand with an extraction volume considered as sustainable. The model results are as follows: (1) The simulation period of the groundwater flow in the studied aquifer achieved satisfactory results using the hydraulic conductivity of the permeable alluvial sediments that constitute the aquifer and the areal recharge as the fitting parameters. (2) A satisfactory match between calculated and measured water levels for the historical record of the 1984-2005 period. Furthermore, in the whole simulation period is appreciated a trend of the water table depletion in the studied aquifer. (3) Based on the analysis of the groundwater management alternatives it was determined a groundwater withdrawal which ensures a sustainable management of the aquifer and suggests that is necessary to reduce the total current extraction volume up to 50%, in order to maintain a sustainable extraction volume and groundwater levels, in this way, to reduce the water table depletion.