Linkage of Global Water Resources, Climate, and Human Health: A Conundrum for Which Cholera Offers a Paradigm (Invited)

An environmental source of cholera was hypothesized as early as the late nineteenth century by Robert Koch. Standard bacteriological procedures for isolation of vibrios from environmental samples, including water, between epidemics generally were unsuccessful because Vibrio cholerae, a marine vibrio, enters into a dormant, "viable but nonculturable stage," when conditions are unfavorable for growth and reproduction. An association of Vibrio cholerae with zooplankton, notably copepods, has been established. Furthermore, the sporadicity and erraticity of cholera epidemics have been correlated with El Niño. Since zooplankton harbor the bacterium and zooplankton blooms follow phytoplankton blooms, remote sensing can be employed to predict cholera epidemics from sea surface temperature (SST), ocean height (OH), chlorophyll, and turbidity data. Cholera occurs seasonally in Bangladesh, with two annual peaks in the number of cases. From clinical remote sensing data, it has been found that SST, OH, and blooms of phytoplankton and zooplankton are correlated with cholera epidemics. Thus, selected climatological factors and incidence of V. cholerae can be recorded, bringing the potential of predicting conditions conducive to cholera outbreaks to reality. A simple filtration intervention takes into account the association of V. cholerae with plankton, and has proven to be a simple solution to the age-old problem of controlling this waterborne disease for villagers in remote regions of Bangladesh.