The ringed seal's last refuge and the importance of snow cover

Ringed seals are strongly adapted to inhabiting seasonal ice cover throughout the Arctic Ocean, marginal seas, and some freshwater lakes. Their distribution has expanded and contracted with northern hemisphere ice cover and is expected to mirror declining ice cover in coming decades. Ringed seals require snow cover to provide shelter from extreme cold and from predators, and the southern extent of their range corresponds to the latitudes to which snow cover—sufficient to form and maintain subnivean lairs—extends. The lairs are especially critical to the survival of pups born and nursed under the snow in late March through May. Snow drifts 50 cm or deeper are necessary for lair occupation, and field measurements indicate that such drifting occurs only where average snow depths (on flat ice) exceed 20 cm. When snow depths are less, ringed seal pups freeze in their lairs and are vulnerable to predation by carnivores and birds. As the climate warms, winter precipitation is expected to increase in the Arctic Ocean, potentially favoring formation and occupation of lairs. At the same time, increasingly late ice formation is expected to decrease the overall accumulation of snow, an effect exacerbated by the high fraction of annual snow fall that occurs in autumn. Early snow melts also contribute to pup mortality and are likely to increase as the climate warms. We forecast April snow depths on Arctic sea ice through the year 2100 in seven runs of CCSM3. Despite predicted increases in winter precipitation in the Arctic, the model forecasted that the accumulation of snow on sea ice will decrease by almost 50% in this century. The timing of the onset of snow melt changes little in the projections, but the shallower snow pack will melt more quickly in the warmer climate. In almost all portions of the range, average snow depths are expected to be less than 20 cm and inadequate for successful rearing of ringed seal young by the end of the century and—in many locations—by mid century. Adequate snow for lair formation is projected only in isolated locations within the Canadian Archipelago by the end of the century. The Archipelago also is expected to be the last refuge of polar bears, a significant predator of ringed seals. Concentrating birth lairs of ringed seals in the limited areas where snow depth will be adequate may increase their vulnerability to bear predation.