Regional Permafrost Probability Modelling in the northwestern Cordillera, 59°N - 61°N, Canada

High resolution (30 x 30 m) permafrost probability models were created for eight mountainous areas in the Yukon and northernmost British Columbia. Empirical-statistical modelling based on the Basal Temperature of Snow (BTS) method was used to develop spatial relationships. Model inputs include equivalent elevation (a variable that incorporates non-uniform temperature change with elevation), potential incoming solar radiation and slope. Probability relationships between predicted BTS and permafrost presence were developed for each area using late-summer physical observations in pits, or by using year-round ground temperature measurements. A high-resolution spatial model for the region has now been generated based on seven of the area models. Each was applied to the entire region, and their predictions were then blended based on a distance decay function from the model source area. The regional model is challenging to validate independently because there are few boreholes in the region. However, a comparison of results to a recently established inventory of rock glaciers for the Yukon suggests its validity because predicted permafrost probabilities were 0.8 or greater for almost 90% of these landforms. Furthermore, the regional model results have a similar spatial pattern to those modelled independently in the eighth area, although predicted probabilities using the regional model are generally higher. The regional model predicts that permafrost underlies about half of the non-glaciated terrain in the region, with probabilities increasing regionally from south to north and from east to west. Elevation is significant, but not always linked in a straightforward fashion because of weak or inverted trends in permafrost probability below treeline. Above treeline, however, permafrost probabilities increase and approach 1.0 in very high elevation areas throughout the study region. The regional model shows many similarities to previous Canadian permafrost maps (Heginbottom and Radburn, 1992; Heginbottom et al., 1995) but is several orders of magnitude more detailed. It also exhibits some significant differences, including the presence of an area of valley-floor continuous permafrost around Beaver Creek near the Alaskan border in the west, as well as higher probabilities of permafrost in the central parts of the region near the boundaries of the sporadic and extensive discontinuous zones. In addition, parts of the northernmost portion of the region would be classified as sporadic discontinuous permafrost because of inversions in the terrestrial surface lapse rate which cause permafrost probabilities to decrease with elevation through the forest. These model predictions are expected to of direct use for infrastructure planning and northern development and can serve as a benchmark for future studies of permafrost distribution in the Yukon. References Heginbottom JR, Dubreuil MA and Haker PT. 1995. Canada Permafrost. (1:7,500,000 scale). In The National Atlas of Canada, 5th Edition, sheet MCR 4177. Ottawa: National Resources Canada. Heginbottom, J.A. and Radburn, L.K. 1992. Permafrost and ground ice conditions of northwestern Canada; Geological Survey of Canada, Map 1691A, scale 1:1,000,000. Digitized by S. Smith, Geological Survey of Canada.