Eroding forest carbon sinks following thinning for combined fire prevention and bioenergy production

Temperate forest annual net uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere is equivalent to ~16% of the annual fossil fuel emissions in the United States. Mitigation strategies to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide have lead to investigation of alternative sources of energy including forest biomass. The prospect of forest derived bioenergy has led to implementation of new forest management strategies based on the assumption that they will reduce total CO2 emissions to the atmosphere by simultaneously reducing the risk of wildfire and substituting for fossil fuels. Using Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) plot data, regional supplemental plot data, and remote sensing products we determined the carbon stocks and fluxes of West Coast forests under current and proposed management scenarios for a 20 year treatment period. Varying biofuels thinning treatments designed to meet multiple objectives emphasizing fire prevention, economic gain, or energy production were applied to determine the resulting net carbon balance and bioenergy potential. Contrary to the management objectives, we find that increased removals result in substantial decreases in forest carbon stocks and Net Biome Production (NBP) and increased emissions. Thinning forests for energy production is not carbon neutral. Emissions are estimated to increase over the 20-year period because preventive thinning removals exceed the CO2 that would have been emitted due to wildfires, fossil fuel inputs are required for harvest and manufacturing, and use of woody biomass in short-lived products emits large quantities of CO2 to the atmosphere. It has the net effect of releasing otherwise sequestered carbon to the atmosphere, which may effectively reduce ongoing carbon uptake by forests and as a result, increase net greenhouse gas emissions, undermining the objective of greenhouse gas reductions over the next several decades.