The Future of Carbon Storage in Upland Blanket - the Case of the English Peak District

This study applies a model of carbon uptake and release pathways across managed and damaged upland peats at a regional scale (725 km2). The aim is to understand the present and future carbon and equivalent CO2 storage of the peat soils under different management and warming scenarios, relative to the current budget. The model applies a series of possible management changes - cease prescribed burning, cease grazing, restore peat surface, block soil drains and an optimal combination of management. The management scenarios are judged under a climate warming scenario by extrapolation of current patterns and trends to 2030. The study estimates that the region is presently a net sink of -62 Ktonnes CO2 equivalent at an average export of -136 tonnes CO2 equivalent/km2/yr.. If management interventions were targeted across the area the total sink could increase to -160 Ktonnes CO2/yr at an average export of -219 tonnes CO2 equivalent/km2/yr. However, not all interventions resulted in a benefit; some resulted in increased losses of CO2 equivalents. In response to current climate trends in northern England, this paper shows that the current rate of decline in equivalent CO2 storage is 3.7 tonnes CO2 eq. km-2 yr-2 or 146 tonnes CO2 eq. km-2 yr-2 per oC. The region would become a net source of equivalent CO2 by 2033, but if optimal land management for CO2 protection was undertaken now the transition to a net source would be delayed until 2086. The study suggests that without any change in land management, the region is only capable of absorbing a temperature change of less than 1oC, but with optimal land management carbon stores in blanket peatlands at the study site could be retained at temperature increases of up to 2oC.