Scaling up food production in the Upper Mississippi river basin: modeling impacts on water quality and nutrient cycling

Agricultural production imposes significant environmental stress on the landscape, both in the intensity and extent of agricultural activities. Among the most significant impacts, agriculture dominates the natural reactive nitrogen cycle, with excess reactive nitrogen leading to the degraded quality of inland and coastal waters. In the U.S., policymakers and stakeholders nationwide continue to debate strategies for decreasing environmental degradation from agricultural lands. Such strategies aim to optimize the balance among competing demands for food, fuel and ecosystem services. One such strategy increasingly discussed in the national debate is that of localizing food production around urban areas, developing what some have recently called “foodsheds”. However, the environmental impacts of localizing food production around population centers are not well-understood given the hard-to-generalize variety seen in management practices currently employed among local farms marketing food crops directly to consumers. As a first, landscape level study of potential impacts from scaling up this type of agriculture, we use the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to quantify environmental impacts from developing foodsheds for all population centers in the Upper Mississippi river basin. Specifically, we focus on nutrient cycling and water quality impacts determining direct greenhouse gas emissions and changes to nutrient runoff from increased food production in this watershed. We investigate a variety of scenarios in which food production is scaled up to the regional level using different types of farm management practices, ranging from conventional production of fruits and vegetables, to production of these products from small-scale, diversified systems integrating conservation easements. In addition to impacts on nutrient cycling and water quality, we also characterize relative levels of productivity in conjunction with overall demand for food associated with population centers to address one aspect of socio-economic concern.